LOT Polish Airlines Doubles Kazakhstan Capacity With Strategic Almaty Route Expansion

Central Asian Aviation Market Gains New European Gateway

LOT Polish Airlines is making a significant strategic move into Central Asia’s growing aviation market with the announcement of direct flights between Warsaw and Almaty, Kazakhstan’s commercial capital. The new route, launching May 31, 2026, represents the carrier’s third Central Asian destination and demonstrates Poland’s expanding economic ties with the resource-rich region.

Route Specifications and Fleet Deployment

The Polish flag carrier will deploy Boeing 737-8 aircraft on the Warsaw-Almaty route, operating four weekly flights during peak summer season and scaling back to three weekly flights in winter. This aircraft choice reflects LOT’s strategy of using fuel-efficient narrow-body jets to serve developing markets where demand is growing but may not yet justify larger wide-body aircraft.

The seasonal adjustment demonstrates sophisticated capacity management, with the airline anticipating stronger demand during the summer tourism period while maintaining year-round business connectivity. This approach mirrors the carrier’s existing Central Asian operations, including its Warsaw-Tashkent route launched in March 2024, which also utilizes the 737-8., according to market insights

Strategic Network Expansion Timeline

LOT’s Central Asian expansion has been carefully sequenced, beginning with Astana services in May 2017, followed by Tashkent in 2024, and now Almaty in 2026. The Almaty route was originally planned for 2020 after Poland and Kazakhstan agreed to expand bilateral flight rights from four to fourteen weekly frequencies in late 2019, but pandemic-related disruptions forced postponement., according to emerging trends

This measured expansion contrasts with the rapid route growth seen in some markets and suggests LOT is pursuing sustainable, data-driven network development. The six-year gap between Kazakh destinations indicates thorough market analysis and strategic patience.

Market Analysis and Passenger Demand

Recent data validates LOT’s decision to finally launch the Almaty route. According to Sabre Market Intelligence, 11,950 two-way passengers traveled between Warsaw and Almaty in 2024, representing a robust 19.7% year-over-year increase. More significantly, all these passengers currently connect through third-country hubs like Doha and Istanbul, indicating substantial potential for direct service capture., as as previously reported

The broader Poland-Kazakhstan market shows even stronger fundamentals, with approximately 49,500 two-way passengers in 2024—a 19.2% increase over 2023. The existing Warsaw-Astana route accounts for more than half of this traffic, suggesting similar potential for the Almaty connection.

Hub Connectivity and Feed Traffic Patterns

Analysis of LOT’s existing Astana service reveals a sophisticated hub-and-spoke operation that will likely benefit the new Almaty route. More than 57% of travelers on the Warsaw-Astana route originate at airports beyond Warsaw, including major European hubs like Frankfurt, Munich, Dusseldorf, Prague, and Hamburg.

This connecting traffic pattern is crucial to LOT’s Central Asian strategy, as it allows the carrier to aggregate demand from across Europe to support thin long-haul routes. The Star Alliance membership provides additional feed through partner hubs, creating a competitive advantage against non-aligned carriers.

Economic Context and Trade Relations

The aviation expansion reflects deepening economic ties between Poland and Kazakhstan. As LOT Director of Network Planning Robert Ludera noted, “Kazakhstan, as the largest economy in Central Asia and one of Poland’s key trading partners in that area, is an excellent destination for our passengers thinking about expanding their businesses.”

Bilateral trade reached $1.12 billion in 2024, accounting for more than 80% of Poland’s total trade with Central Asia. The commercial relationship is supported by more than 140 Polish companies operating in Kazakhstan, with cumulative Polish investment exceeding $520 million since 2005.

Capacity Impact and Market Position

OAG Schedules Analyser data reveals the significant capacity expansion this new route represents. LOT currently provides approximately 1,488 two-way weekly seats between Poland and Kazakhstan, temporarily decreasing to 1,116 during winter 2025-26. With the Almaty addition, total capacity will effectively double to nearly 3,000 weekly seats by summer 2026.

This expansion solidifies LOT’s position as the sole carrier offering nonstop connections between Poland and Kazakhstan, creating a strategic monopoly on direct air links between the two countries. The capacity doubling demonstrates confidence in both existing demand and future market growth potential.

Regional Strategic Implications

LOT’s Central Asian expansion positions Warsaw as an emerging gateway between Europe and Central Asia, competing with established hubs like Istanbul, Dubai, and Frankfurt for connecting traffic. The strategy leverages Poland’s geographic position at the crossroads of Eastern and Western Europe while capitalizing on growing economic ties with post-Soviet states.

The sequential route development—starting with capital cities (Astana) and expanding to commercial centers (Almaty)—suggests a sophisticated market penetration strategy that could serve as a template for other Central Asian destinations. As economic ties between Europe and Central Asia deepen, LOT’s first-mover advantage in the Polish market could deliver significant long-term benefits.

The Almaty route represents more than just another destination—it signals LOT’s strategic commitment to developing Central Asia as a core market and establishes Warsaw as a competitive alternative to traditional European-Asian transfer hubs.

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