According to Fortune, at the opening of Turning Point USA’s four-day AmericaFest convention this week, the group’s leader Erika Kirk endorsed Vice President JD Vance for president in 2028. The endorsement from the powerful conservative youth organization drew cheers from the crowd, with Vance set to be the closing speaker on Sunday. Kirk, who took over after her husband Charlie Kirk was assassinated, said the group wants Vance “elected for 48 in the most resounding way possible.” The event also featured speeches from U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson and Donald Trump Jr., but revealed significant tensions within the MAGA movement as it ponders a future without Trump, who is constitutionally ineligible for another term. Commentator Tucker Carlson highlighted the central question, asking, “Who gets the machinery when the president exits the scene?”
Vance’s early edge and its weight
Look, getting the Turning Point stamp of approval this early is a big deal. This isn’t just some random poll. We’re talking about a group with a nationwide volunteer network that’s pure gold in early primary states—that grassroots energy is everything when you’re trying to build momentum. The personal connection here is intense, too. Vance was close with Charlie Kirk, and after the assassination, the VP flew out on Air Force Two to bring Kirk’s remains home and helped carry the casket. That kind of loyalty builds a narrative that’s hard to compete with. For a young attendee like the 20-year-old quoted, seeing that endorsement means something. It’s a signal. But here’s the thing: an endorsement in 2024 for an election in 2028 is a lifetime away in politics. It gives Vance a pole position, but it also paints a huge target on his back.
The fractures are the real story
But the endorsement drama is actually the smaller story. The real takeaway from AmericaFest is that the so-called “Trump coalition” is not a monolith. It’s starting to crack under the pressure of figuring out what comes next. The conference featured arguments over antisemitism, Israel, and environmental regulations. Tucker Carlson felt the need to dismiss talk of a Republican “civil war” as “totally fake,” which is basically a sure sign that things are getting messy. He accused people of being “mad at JD Vance” and stirring up trouble to block him. The internal discord is so open that a Turning Point spokesperson had to frame it as a “healthy debate,” saying “We’re not hive-minded commies. Let it play out.” That’s not the language of a unified movement. It’s the language of a factional brawl waiting to happen.
Trump’s shadow and the third-term musing
And complicating everything is the man himself. Donald Trump hasn’t officially anointed anyone, though he’s spoken highly of Vance and Marco Rubio, even suggesting they could be a future ticket. When asked if Vance was the “heir apparent” in August, Trump said “most likely” and called him the “probably favorite.” But any succession planning gets totally scrambled by Trump’s own occasional musings about a third term. In October, he told reporters, “I’m not allowed to run. It’s too bad.” That kind of comment, even if not serious, freezes the field. It keeps everyone looking over their shoulder at the old boss instead of fully committing to a new vision. How do you build a campaign for 2028 when the central figure of the party keeps hinting he wishes he could stay on the stage indefinitely?
The long road ahead
So what does this mean for the business of winning elections? Basically, it’s going to be chaotic and expensive. The machinery that Tucker Carlson referenced—the donor networks, the media ecosystem, the grassroots fervor—is up for grabs. Different factions will back different horses, and the infighting will be brutal. For someone like Vance, the early support from a key group like Turning Point is a massive asset, but it also means he’ll be judged against an impossible standard: being the true heir to Trump’s “America First” ideology, as Carlson put it. The personal loyalty narrative is powerful, but politics is about the future, not just the past. The next few years will be a messy, public struggle to define what the Republican Party actually stands for once its defining figure is gone. And nobody, not even the early favorite, has a clear path through that.
