According to Forbes, Sandfall’s breakout RPG Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 is the heavy favorite to win Game of the Year at The Game Awards ceremony airing Thursday, December 11. The game has a record-breaking 12 total nominations, the most in the show’s history, and occupies three of the six slots in the Best Performance category for actors Charlie Cox, Ben Starr, and Jennifer English. Betting markets reportedly give the title a staggering 94% chance of winning the top award. The analysis suggests wins in Narrative, Score and Music, and both Best Indie and Best Debut Indie are virtually assured due to the voting structure. The only potential challenger noted is Hades II, which has a slightly higher Metacritic score of 95 to Expedition 33‘s 92.
The case for a sweep
Here’s the thing: when a game captures the conversation like this, it’s hard to bet against it. The Forbes piece basically argues that the nomination math alone makes a loss nearly impossible. Think about it. Winning Best Indie and Best Debut Indie is almost a procedural formality, because no other Game of the Year nominee is even in those categories. So voters would have to consciously decide, “This is the best game of the year, but not the best indie game,” which, come on. That almost never happens.
And that creates a momentum that’s tough to stop. I think the piece is right that Narrative and Score are locks. The performances are legendary. So by the time they get to the final GOTY envelope, Expedition 33 will likely already have a pile of statues on the table. That visual alone sways voters. It becomes a coronation, not a competition.
But what about the competition?
Now, the article does nod at Hades II and its 95 Metacritic. But it quickly dismisses it, and I tend to agree. Metacritic isn’t a predictor for these industry-voted awards. The sheer scale, ambition, and emotional wallop of Expedition 33 feels like it was built for this specific moment. Hades II is a phenomenal game, but it’s a sequel to a phenomenon. Expedition 33 is a brand-new phenomenon.
What about a dark horse? The piece mentions Silksong, maybe, or Donkey Kong Bananza riding the Switch 2’s hype. But let’s be real. Silksong would be a shock win after so long in development, and while Nintendo games always have a puncher’s chance, this feels like Sandfall’s year. The betting odds at 94% tell you everything. Would you take that bet?
What a win means
If this prediction holds, it’s a massive moment for Sandfall. We’re talking about a studio’s debut title potentially winning the highest honor in the industry. Overnight, it goes from a critical darling to a household name. Sales will skyrocket. Their next project will have a blank check and immense pressure.
For players, it validates that experience you had. You know, that feeling of “this is something special” while playing. It cements the game in the canon. For the broader market, it’s a huge win for single-player, narrative-driven RPGs. It proves there’s a massive audience for deeply personal, fantastical stories that aren’t just open-world checklists. In a year of great games, one seems to have risen above. We’ll find out for sure on the 11th.
