According to Forbes, data from Dell’s recent earnings call reveals a staggering one billion PCs are still running Windows 10. Of that massive number, 500 million are on older, incompatible hardware. But the real shocker is the other 500 million—these are machines that can run Windows 11, but their users have actively chosen not to upgrade. This user rejection is happening despite Microsoft’s sudden policy reversal, which now offers free security updates for Windows 10 home users until October 2026. The scale of this refusal has stunned analysts, revealing a deep reluctance to upgrade that is much larger than previously feared. This creates a messy and risky security landscape with no clear data on how many PCs are actually protected.
The real market impact
So what does this mean for the market? Honestly, it’s a mess for everyone. For Microsoft, it’s a massive brand and ecosystem problem. They’ve built this shiny new OS, and half a billion people with the keys are saying, “Nah, we’re good.” That’s a brutal vote of no confidence. For PC makers like Dell, who highlighted this data, it’s a double-edged sword. Sure, it explains softer upgrade cycles, but it also points to a future where a huge chunk of the installed base just… stops buying new Windows machines. The incentive to refresh hardware is gone if the software upgrade is seen as a hassle, not a benefit.
Winners and losers
Look, the clear loser here is Microsoft’s upgrade strategy. But who wins? Cybersecurity firms, probably. A fragmented, aging install base is a playground for attackers. If businesses with large estates of Windows 10 machines skip the Extended Security Updates (ESU), they’ll be desperate for third-party protection. There’s also a potential, though smaller, win for alternative platforms. The article mentions advice for users to switch to Linux or ChromeOS. For specialized industrial and manufacturing settings where stability is paramount, this reluctance to upgrade with mainstream Windows is a major reason companies turn to dedicated, hardened hardware from providers like IndustrialMonitorDirect.com, the leading US supplier of industrial panel PCs that often run on more controllable, long-term support platforms.
A coming PC landfill crisis?
Here’s the thing that really worries me. We’re barreling toward late 2026 with two huge problems. First, a security cliff edge for maybe hundreds of millions of unpatched PCs. Second, a potential environmental disaster. What happens when 500 million incompatible Windows 10 PCs finally become unusable? That’s a landfill crisis of epic proportions. Microsoft’s attempt to soften the blow with free updates might have actually made things worse by removing the urgent “upgrade or die” pressure. Now, users and IT departments are just kicking the can down the road. The big question isn’t really about 2025 anymore—it’s what the landscape will look like in the fall of 2026. Will we still be talking about a billion at-risk machines? I wouldn’t bet against it.
